[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 141703
SWODY2
SPC AC 141701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS WILL TAKE ON AN
INCREASINGLY-POSITIVE TILT...AS NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE SRN PORTION LINGERS OVER THE
SWRN CONUS.  

AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY OVER THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION
-- ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH -- WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LIKELY INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD OUT OF THE S CENTRAL
U.S. INTO MEXICO/THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY...WHILE ALSO MOVING SEWD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION/THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 16/12Z.

...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN/S TX...
COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN LA SWWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF INTO
DEEP S TX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD CROSS THE RIO
GRANDE INTO NERN MEXICO SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE PERIOD.  

ABOVE PRONOUNCED NLY SURFACE WINDS...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM
A SLY DIRECTION -- AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. 
THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SHALLOW
SURFACE COLD LAYER WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
ANY SEVERE THREAT...AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE WITH
TIME.

...ELSEWHERE...
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY SHIFT EWD FROM THE MID
OH VALLEY REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION
OF A 10% PROBABILITY THUNDER LINE ATTM.

..GOSS.. 01/14/2007