[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 190535
SWODY2
SPC AC 190534

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 19 2006

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 180-200M DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG SPEED MAX DIGS INTO NRN NM...THEN EJECTS NEWD INTO
CNTRL KS.  THIS FEATURE WILL REQUIRE RAPID ADJUSTMENT AT LOW
LEVELS...IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WHERE DEEPENING SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CO INTO NRN KS/SRN NEB BY 21/12Z.

FOCUSED ASCENT DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA...AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION...WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING
PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER 00Z ACROSS MUCH OF NEB...SWD
ACROSS KS INTO NWRN OK.  DESPITE A LAG IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THIS REGION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND STRENGTH OF UPPER
SYSTEM SUGGEST STRONG ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
DARK.  MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE...ALTHOUGH A FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND
PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH POSSIBLE LARGER
STONES IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

..DARROW.. 09/19/2006