[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 191732
SWODY2
SPC AC 191731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2006

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER TROUGH/UPPER LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE A MAINLY NOCTURNAL/ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
EVENT IS EXPECTED.  ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL AND SRN FL...WITH A STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CONUS LIKELY PRECLUDING APPRECIABLE THUNDER THREAT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS. 
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST AS RICHER
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF S OF MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. 
THEREFORE...EXPECT LIMITED DESTABILIZATION AND A CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS...SUPPRESSING
MOST IF NO ALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING...IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
SPREADING EWD ABOVE LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING...EXPECT ELEVATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  SUFFICIENTLY STRONG/VEERING WIND FIELD SHOULD
COMBINE WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL.

..GOSS.. 09/19/2006