[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 041731
SWODY2
SPC AC 041730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON SEP 04 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
SEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGION TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NEWD ALONG PRE-EXISTING
FRONT FROM GA INTO THE CAROLINAS. FARTHER WEST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE SWD INTO THE PLAINS IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE.


...GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PERSIST
IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM CNTRL/SRN GA NEWD INTO THE ERN
CAROLINAS AND SERN VA. POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING MAY DEVELOP IN
WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY...BUT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG OWING TO WEAK LAPSE RATES. SOME INCREASE IN
MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW MAY OCCUR FROM PARTS OF GA INTO THE
CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS. MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MODEST WIND
FIELDS THROUGH 6 KM SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

...OH VALLEY...

SCATTERED STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT NEAR
VORT MAX CENTER OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS COOL AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH -15 TO -16 EXPECTED. WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING CAN OCCUR...
MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MARGINAL THREAT OF HAIL
WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT
OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% HAIL
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.


...SERN CO THROUGH NERN NM...

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE FRONT RANGE AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. NLY 30 KT
WINDS AT 6 KM ABOVE LIGHT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6
KM SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. GENERALLY NLY FLOW IN THE
3-8 KM LAYER SUGGESTS STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT ADVANCE TOO FAR E OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

..DIAL.. 09/04/2006