[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 050606
SWODY2
SPC AC 050605

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT TUE SEP 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ENEWD FROM THE UPPER OH
VALLEY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...BUT LARGE-SCALE MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

...SERN VA SSWWD INTO FAR SERN GA...
WEAK LAPSE RATES BUT VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN
MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
INCREASE IN INTENSITY POSSIBLE AS LOCAL HEATING HELPS BOOST
INSTABILITY IN SOME AREAS.

THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LITTLE HAIL THREAT...FLOW INCREASING
WITH HEIGHT TO 40 TO 50 KT FROM THE SSW AT MID-LEVELS SHOULD PROVIDE
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS -- AND PERHAPS EVEN A
TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BUT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THOUGH OVERALL LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
FORCING SUGGESTS THAT WEAK CAPPING SHOULD INHIBIT STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR PEAK
HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION.

LOW-LEVEL SLYS BENEATH 20 KT MID-LEVEL NLYS MAY YIELD SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND
THREAT.  ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE PERIOD
AROUND PEAK HEATING...WITH RAPID STORM WEAKENING ANTICIPATED AFTER
SUNSET.

..GOSS.. 09/05/2006