[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 030604
SWODY2
SPC AC 030603

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT SUN SEP 03 2006

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AS ERN U.S. TROUGH -- AND EMBEDDED UPPER LOW -- DEEPENS AND
MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION...ALLOWING AN EXPANSION
OF THE WRN U.S. RIDGE. 

THE MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SERN
U.S. WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO S TX...WITH NLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS. A
FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...AND IN ELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NERN NM.  HOWEVER...WITH
HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS REMAINING ACROSS S TX AND THE GULF COAST
REGION...INSTABILITY -- AND THUS CONVECTIVE INTENSITY -- SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED IN MOST AREAS.  

...HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NERN NM...
SELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN AND INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHERE RELATIVELY MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION...THOUGH OVERALL STORM
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THERMODYNAMIC DEFICIENCY.  

IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION COULD OCCUR...40 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS WOULD RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS.  THEREFORE...WILL INITIATE 5% CONDITIONAL SEVERE
PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.  ANY THREAT WOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING.

...ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN WI...
DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ERN IA AND INTO NRN
IL/SRN WI...NEAR UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WHERE MARGINAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED. WITH COMPACT 35 KT MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK FORECAST ON SERN FRINGE OF UPPER LOW...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED/LOW-TOPPED STORMS SHOULD EXIST.  THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN A 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION FOR STRONGER
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

..GOSS.. 09/03/2006