[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 031708
SWODY2
SPC AC 031707

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT SUN SEP 03 2006

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NERN NM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING SSWWD ACROSS WY AND ERN MT.  MODELS SUGGEST THE MT IMPULSE
WILL TRACK SSEWD ACROSS CO ON MONDAY.  STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO OFFSET MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.  OROGRAPHIC
FORCING COMBINED WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF MT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SRN CO AND NRN-NERN NM...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SSEWD INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.  THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AS NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 40 KT BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ATOP ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS...RESULTING IN 30-40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A CATEGORICAL RISK...GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.  THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITY. 

...PART OF UPPER MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST...
CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SEWD FROM IA
INTO IL DURING DAY 2 PERIOD.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POCKET /-14
TO -18 C AT 500 MB/.  STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SRN AND NRN
PERIPHERIES OF THE UPPER LOW /MO INTO IL AND NRN WI INTO MN/
INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ACROSS THESE AREAS...
BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SEVERE
STORMS.

..PETERS.. 09/03/2006