[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 020552
SWODY2
SPC AC 020551

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN TO CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD...WITH A
TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...A TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THE CENTRAL U.S.
TROUGH WILL MAKE SOME EWD PROGRESS WITH TIME...WITH EMBEDDED UPPER
LOW MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN FROM THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES SWWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN WSWWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST REGION INTO S TX.  WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL NLYS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
WITH A CORRESPONDING LACK OF RICH MOISTURE/SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY.

...MN SWD INTO NRN MO...
DESPITE THE LACK OF A HIGH THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS...MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /-14 TO -18 C/ ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THIS REGION.  AS A RESULT...MARGINAL
INSTABILITY /AOB 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS EXPECTED NEAR
AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INITIATION OF
SCATTERED/LOW-TOPPED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD THEN
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...40 TO 50 KT CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
NRN MO/ERN IA. RESULTING SHEAR COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- WITH ASSOCIATED
THREAT FOR HAIL.  WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST
TO REFLECT THE POSSIBLE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 09/02/2006