[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 021717
SWODY2
SPC AC 021716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN MN/SW WI TO NRN MO...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH TRACK OF SD CLOSED UPPER LOW TOWARD
THE SE...REACHING CENTRAL IA BY 12Z MONDAY.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT OF
THIS FEATURE WITHIN EXIT REGION OF ACCOMPANYING 50-60 KT WNWLY MID
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SRN MN
INTO NRN MO.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE
COVERAGE.  A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
GIVEN COLD POCKET /-14 TO -18 C AT 500 MB/.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
HURRICANE JOHN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...PER
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS NWWD ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA INTO DAY 2 PERIOD.  A NWD SURGE OF MOISTURE /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY AND SRN CA ON SUNDAY CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 90S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  MID
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS AZ TO SRN CA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NELY AS JOHN
TRACKS NWWD ALONG CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.  THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP SWWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
FAVOR A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.  WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE.  THUS...HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED A 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITY.

..PETERS.. 09/02/2006