[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 010553
SWODY2
SPC AC 010552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED ON THE LARGE SCALE THIS
PERIOD...WITH STRONGER/MORE ACTIVE FLOW CONFINED TO AREAS WELL N OF
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER.  MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST OVER THE CONUS
WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS/MIDWEST -- COMPRISED OF TWO
SMALLER-SCALE CENTERS OF VORTICITY.  THE FIRST -- A WEAK UPPER LOW
-- IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE THE SECOND MOVES NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS
TX/THE GULF COAST REGION...AHEAD OF LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS.  THOUGH A MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST ALONG AND S OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION...WHILE WEAK WIND FIELD FURTHER LIMITS ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION.

NAM HINTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF NERN EXTENSION OF
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SUPPORTING-+ WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 
FURTHER...QUESTIONS REGARDING THE ACTUAL SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE
ERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF ERNESTO RENDER THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST
DIFFICULT ACROSS THIS REGION -- AND THUS WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GOSS.. 09/01/2006