[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 011723
SWODY2
SPC AC 011722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ARIZONA...
SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ARIZONA DESERTS SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE MOGOLLON RIM AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
MORE ORGANIZED MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS.

...MID-ATLANTIC...
THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NWD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WITH TIME...SOME HEAVY RAINBANDS MAY
STILL EXIST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STRONG ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE TOO WEAK FOR
A THREAT OF ROTATING STORMS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/MID-MO VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
CLOSE-OFF AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 09/01/2006