[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 160513
SWODY2
SPC AC 160512

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL ACT TO DISLODGE VIGOROUS IMPULSE NOW MOVING TOWARD
THE SRN PLAINS. THE NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN A LARGE
SCALE DEEP UPPER TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS...ACROSS THE ROCKIES...TO THE NRN PLAINS DURING TUESDAY. THE
SRN PLAINS IMPULSE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE NEWD INTO MEAN
RIDGE POSITION OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND
OVER THE GULF OF MEX WITH BELT OF MODEST WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTING ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AFFECTING THE
GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH DAY 1...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST FROM LA TO THE FL PNHDL.
  
...NRN GULF COAST...
SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN BROAD
ZONE OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NRN GULF. LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER
WIND FIELDS MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...ADEQUATE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY MAY EXIST NEAR THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO.

..CARBIN.. 10/16/2006