[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 161731
SWODY2
SPC AC 161730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN MS...AL...FL
PANHANDLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MEAN
TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS...AND POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM CENTRAL
GULF NEWD TOWARD QUE.  MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW -- WITH MULTIPLE
CIRCULATION CENTERS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ATTM -- WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG SEWD ACROSS NWRN CONUS AND GREAT BASIN.  BY 18/12Z...RESULT
SHOULD BE HIGH-AMPLITUDE...POSITIVELY TILTED SYNOPTIC TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY REGION TO VICINITY SRN CA AND NRN BAJA.  FOREGOING PLUME
OF SW FLOW ALOFT...FROM SRN CONUS AND NRN MEX TO OH/TN VALLEY
REGIONS...MAY CONTAIN SEVERAL WEAK/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. 
MEANWHILE...TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER ERN NM AND FAR W TX WILL DAMPEN
CONSIDERABLY AND ACCELERATE NEWD FROM 17/12Z POSITION OVER SE
TX...MID-SOUTH AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS.

AT SFC...MARINE/WARM FRONT NOW ANALYZED OVER SE TX AND S-CENTRAL LA
IS FCST TO LIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS MS/SWRN AL INTO EARLY DAY-2. 
THIS FRONT MAY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER AL/GA FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD...AS
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKENS/VEERS IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING/EJECTION
OF MIDLEVEL WAVE AWAY FROM AREA.  MEANWHILE...FRONTOGENESIS AND
CYCLOGENESIS ARE FCST OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF WRN CONUS
SYNOPTIC TROUGH.  BY 18/00Z...EXPECT SFC LOW INVOF SERN CO/OK
PANHANDLE/SWRN KS REGION...SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS OK BY 18/12Z ALONG
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...EARLY PERIOD...
SCATTERED TSTMS -- WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...TORNADOES AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS -- ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CATEGORICAL SLGT
RISK AREA DURING FIRST HALF OF PERIOD. VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES -- NOW PRESENT ACROSS LA -- ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD
GRADUALLY THROUGH REMAINDER DAY-1 PERIOD INTO EARLY-DAY2...WITH 0-1
KM SRH COMMONLY ABOVE 200 J/KG.  LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...VERY
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WEAK CINH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR AND ROTATE...MARINE FRONT
REPRESENTING NRN BOUND OF MOST PROBABLE SVR THREAT.  BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AND FROM
W-E...DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD...AS WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
EJECTS WELL N-NE OF AREA.

...LA...SE TX...LATE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS WITH DAY-1 THREAT...VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONDITIONAL
SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL NOCTURNALLY ACROSS THIS REGION.  LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TO SLY AFTER DARK...BENEATH ABOUT 30 KT
500 MB WINDS.  FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD 0-1 KM SRH 100-150 J/KG BUT ONLY
30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST
WITH SFC DEW POINTS 70S F...NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC DEEP-LAYER LAPSE
RATES...WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION...AND EFFECTIVE PARCELS ROOTED AT SFC.  EXPECT WEAK LOW
LEVEL FORCING IN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES.

..EDWARDS.. 10/16/2006