[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 101731
SWODY2
SPC AC 101729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WRN KS WILL DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT
RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES SSEWD THROUGH THE MS...OH AND TN VALLEYS. SEVERAL
JET STREAKS AND ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH A
SURFACE LOW FORECAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NWD INTO SRN ONTARIO DURING THE
DAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD AND SEWD THROUGH THE OH AND
TN VALLEYS THIS PERIOD. SWRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS S TX.


...CNTRL/NRN AL AND GA...TN VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AREA...

SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. OBSERVATIONS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD TO NEAR THE
CNTRL GULF COAST. HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE CONFINED TO SERN TX AND THE
WRN GULF. GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN DISPLACED FROM
THE RICHER MOISTURE SOURCE...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE OH AND TN
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND LIMIT OR DELAY HEATING. POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEATING WILL EXIST DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
IN WAKE OF LEAD VORT MAX AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ADVANCES EWD. DESPITE
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR AS A
RESULT OF MID LEVEL COOLING ACCOMPANYING THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
AND WHERE ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM.
STILL MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND GENERALLY AOB 800 J/KG FROM
THE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY.

A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE OH VALLEY EARLY
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAMPLIFYING LEAD VORT MAX. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY
WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTAL FORCING AS A SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATES
THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE AN AXIS OF MARGINAL SBCAPE
COULD DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY WIND PROFILES ACCOMPANYING THE
INTENSIFYING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LINE
SEGMENTS WITH LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
WIND. SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
MORE CONDITIONAL UPON DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DUE TO POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS UPON THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.


...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA DUE TO SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MCS CURRENTLY OVER SERN TX MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE NRN GULF EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD LIMIT HEATING NEAR THE COAST. MID-UPPER FLOW WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG IN THIS REGION RESULTING IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
VEER AND WEAKEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET AND
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOP WELL N. THIS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE WEAK...AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED.

..DIAL.. 10/10/2006