[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 140601
SWODY2
SPC AC 140600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN/SERN TX AND SRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION THROUGH SUNDAY. FIRST DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE DAY 2 PERIOD WILL BE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING
TOWARD SRN CA. THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS SYSTEM AMONG THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY...GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH COMPARED TO NAM-WRF. SREF MEAN APPEARS TO BE
A REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
SUGGESTS THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP WHILE DEVELOPING ESEWD FROM
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO NRN MEX AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

A BELT OF INTENSIFYING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECEED THE
SOUTHWEST/NRN MEX TROUGH. THIS STRONG FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM NRN MEX
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND NWRN GULF. A SECOND DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
IS FORECAST TO EMANATE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES AND LIFT NEWD
ALONG/NEAR THE TX GULF COAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE SWLY
FLOW. WHILE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO
LARGE...THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS THAT PRONOUNCED WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND RESULTANT ASCENT WILL EXIST COINCIDENT WITH A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS ACROSS THE NWRN GULF...AND POSSIBLY INLAND ACROSS THE TX/LA
COASTAL PLAINS.

...TX/LA GULF COAST...
MOISTURE AND MASS TRANSPORT SHOULD INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH SUNDAY
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WHERE A COASTAL/WARM FRONT MAY DEVELOP
INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN INTENSIFYING LOW
LEVEL SLY FLOW. LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE
APPROACH OF THE SOUTHWEST/NRN MEXICO TROUGH...AND/OR BY LOWER
AMPLITUDE IMPULSES EJECTING NNEWD FROM MEX. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S...WEAK CAP...AND STRONG FORCING WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY TEND TO LIMIT
GREATER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION INLAND FROM THE GULF.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
MAY COMPENSATE FOR RELATIVELY LOW CAPE/WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
AND LEAD TO SUPERCELLS WITH A WIND AND TORNADO THREAT...EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
PARTS OF NM AND WRN/CNTRL TX THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS EWD. WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION BUT RAPID WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT MAY BE INHIBITED
BY CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION TO STRONG ASCENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS TX...LIFT AND LAPSE RATES NEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH MAY MARGINALLY SUPPORT HAIL FROM A FEW STORMS IN NM.

SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER WEST TX AND
NEARER THE RIO GRANDE AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND POSSIBLE
DRYLINE SHARPENS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. UNCERTAINTY IN TROUGH
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 10/14/2006