[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 020556
SWODY2
SPC AC 020555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON OCT 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VLY AND CNTRL GRTLKS REGION...

...UPPER MS VLY EWD INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS...
TWO-STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH A SRN STREAM
TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE PAC COAST AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
SRN STATES.  WITHIN THE NRN STREAM...A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL SKIRT
ACROSS THE NRN GRTLKS REGION ON TUE WHILE A SUB-TROPICAL
IMPULSE...EJECTING AHEAD OF THE WRN COAST TROUGH...MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY.

THE FRONT ASSOCD WITH THE CANADIAN DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SWD AND
STALL FROM MI TO NEB BY 12Z TUE AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER IA.  THE LOW
WILL MOVE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO SERN ONTARIO BY EARLY WED. 
TRAILING THE LOW...THE FRONT WILL RESUME A SEWD MOVEMENT... REACHING
THE MIDWEST...OZARKS AND THE SRN PLAINS BY 12Z WED.

A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 DEG C/KM.  THIS STRONG EML
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT EWD ALONG/S OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUE.  AT THE SAME TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY WITH SFC DEW POINTS
LIKELY IN THE LWR 60S BY TUE AFTN.

MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD OUT OF THE
REGION EARLY ON TUE.  BUT...AS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT TIED TO THE
SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SPREADS EWD...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VLY BY EARLY TUE AFTN.  ATTM...GIVEN
STRENGTH OF THE EML...MOST TSTMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED ATOP THE
RESIDUAL COLD DOME PRODUCED BY MORNING CONVECTION.  BUT...IF
SUFFICIENT HEATING AND STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED UPPER SUPPORT
MATERIALIZE...THE SFC-BASED TSTM THREAT WILL INCREASE.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...BUT 
RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL INCREASE WITH ANY
SFC-BASED STORMS.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP QUICKLY EWD ACROSS MI AND SRN ONTARIO TUE
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY ARRIVE ACROSS THE LWR GRTLKS REGION BY EARLY WED.
 INSTABILITY AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREATS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY
WITH EWD EXTENT...BUT AN OVERNIGHT THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS MAY EXIST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY/MIDWEST.

..RACY.. 10/02/2006