[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 040546
SWODY2
SPC AC 040545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GRT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
UPPER LOW OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST WILL GRADUALLY EDGE EWD TOWARD THE
GRT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON THU.  A 60+ KT BELT OF MID-LEVEL
FLOW ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN CA NWD INTO MT. 
THE LOW HAS BEGUN TO TAP INTO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SHOULD INCREASE LATE WED INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE GRT BASIN AND SWRN DESERTS.  EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WITHIN THE
WARM CONVEYOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION.  STRONGER
STORMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS NRN AZ
NWD THROUGH UT INTO ERN ID...THEN SPREAD ENEWD THU NIGHT.  STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH NEARLY 50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLD STG-SVR TSTMS /INCLUDING A
BRIEF SUPERCELL RISK/ WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.  GIVEN THE 
UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD...A SLGT
RISK IS NOT JUSTIFIED ATTM.

..RACY.. 10/04/2006