[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 111721
SWODY2
SPC AC 111720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST SAT NOV 11 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER VA/CAROLINAS LATE DAY 1 WILL
TRACK E OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE...WITH GREATER TRACK
SPREAD SUGGESTED BEYOND DAY 2. MEANWHILE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS BY 12Z MONDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH NOW ENTERING WEST COAST SPREADS INLAND AND A SECOND
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED OVER VA TIDEWATER REGION LATE DAY 1
WILL ALSO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  A BAND OR TWO OF
CONVECTION/TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN NC AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS NWD TO VA CAPES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 100 KT 500 MB JET OVER CAROLINAS. 
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
LIMITED GEOGRAPHICAL AREA PRECLUDE ADDITION OF SEVERE THREAT AT THIS
TIME.  ANY ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG AND/OR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVE E
OF THE COAST.

..PETERS.. 11/11/2006