[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 120524
SWODY2
SPC AC 120523

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST SAT NOV 11 2006

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SE TX...
THE UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW APPEARS QUITE STRONG AND
THE LATEST NAM DEPICTION OF SHEARING THE IMPULSE QUICKLY NEWD INTO
THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY MAY BE PREMATURE.  SIDING WITH 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF WITH A SLOWER...STRONGER AND MORE SRN SOLUTION WOULD MAINTAIN
ENELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALONG THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME INTO MON AFTN.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN IN EARNEST MON NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES...PRECEEDING A POWERFUL WCOAST UPPER JET...MOVE EWD TO
THE PLAINS.  A WARM NOSE BETWEEN H8-H7 ACROSS TX WILL LIKELY KEEP
SFC BASED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IN
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS
SERN TX BY 12Z TUE.  ATTM...ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS. 

...COASTAL PAC NW...
STRONG AND MOIST WLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BENEATH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF A 100+ UPPER JET MON AFTN/EVE. 
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG/W OF THE COASTAL
RANGES.  ISOLD LIGHTNING /LESS THAN 10% COVERAGE/ MAY ALSO OCCUR
WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES EWD.

...SERN NEW ENGLAND...
SLOW MOVING NOREASTER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NEW ENGLAND MON INTO TUE.
 CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE WITHIN
HEAVIER BANDS OF PCPN TO THE NW OF THE SFC LOW.  TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS.

..RACY.. 11/12/2006