[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 281733
SWODY2
SPC AC 281732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VLY SWD INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NEWD...GLANCING OFF THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG SERN STATES RIDGE. 
AT THE SFC...FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND SETTLE
SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS BY MON EVE.  
 
...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL PLAINS...
WARM ADVECTION DERIVED TSTM CLUSTERS /ISOLD SEVERE/ ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MOVING NEWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE ERN DAKS AND WRN MN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO WEAKEN.  

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POTENTIALLY
VERY UNSTABLE AS SEASONABLY MOIST AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTS
ACROSS THE CORN BELT INTO THE UPPER MS VLY.  HEATING AND WEAK LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROBABLY WEAKEN CINH SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE
PRIMARY FRONT AND CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES MON AFTN ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VLY.  THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT IS QUITE WEAK FARTHER S...STRONGER
HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING CINH AS FAR SW AS KS. 
THUS...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OR BACKBUILD SWWD ACROSS THE CORN
BELT...THE MID/LWR MO RVR VLY AND INTO KS LATE IN THE AFTN/EVE. 

STRONGER FLOW/EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INTO
LINES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND CORN BELT...BUT MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER SW.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH HAIL SIZE POSSIBLE
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF KS...SERN NEB INTO IA WHERE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER. 

ONE OR MORE MCS/S MAY EVOLVE OVERNIGHT MON...PRIMARILY ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN KS AND ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY.  EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AS SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
PERSIST WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.  HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG WRN/SWRN FLANKS OF TSTMS
CLUSTERS...NAMELY ACROSS PARTS OF IA...KS...MO AND PSBLY NERN OKLA
WHERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...WRN NEW ENGLAND/CENTRAL-ERN NY INTO NERN PA...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AN MCS TOPPING THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC SHOULD BE ENTERING UPSTATE
NY/NRN VT TOWARD 12Z MON.  THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE DECAYING PHASE MON MORNING AS IT TRACKS SEWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND.  OUTFLOW ENHANCED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTN/EARLY EVE TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN
NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN/CENTRAL NY AND NERN PA.  AIR MASS ACROSS THESE
REGIONS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  THIS COMBINED WITH
MODEST LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.5 C/KM/ AND 30 KT OF NWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR A STRONG WIND GUST.

..RACY.. 05/28/2006