[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 290615
SWODY2
SPC AC 290614

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN CO/FAR NERN NM EWD
ACROSS SRN KS/WRN-NRN OK TO WRN MO...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON
TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD OVER NRN
CA...TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  A STRONGER LEAD UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS THEY TRACK NEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD HUDSON BAY.  MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE ERN U.S. IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EWD TO ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND NRN GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS IA INTO SRN PLAINS WILL BE
NEARLY PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LITTLE SWD
MOVEMENT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO KS/OK...
AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL KS
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF 35-40 KT SLY LLJ.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK EWD TUESDAY MORNING AND DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
AS THE LLJ JET WEAKENS.  ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL EITHER
REINFORCE THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SRN KS INTO NWRN OK OR ACT AS A
SECOND FOCI FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS KS. 
SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH A
MOIST AIR MASS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN CO INTO SRN KS AND SWD THROUGH TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK ALONG DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL TX.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...DRY LINE AND ALSO WITHIN
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO NWD TO
ERN WY.  ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS WILL GENERALLY BE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THIS REGION...MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP ESELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. 
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM ERN CO SEWD INTO SRN KS...
CENTRAL/WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
STRONGEST.  IN FACT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SWRN KS/WRN OK INTO
THE NERN TX PANHANDLE.

SLY LLJ WILL RE-INTENSIFY TUESDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING THE UPSCALE
GROWTH OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN CO AND/OR SRN KS/NRN OK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY REMAINING SEVERE AS IT TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

...MO NEWD TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION...
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS MUCH OF MO AS
THE PORTION EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
E AND SE REACHING LOWER MI TO NRN IL INTO MO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. 
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
IA/NRN MO AT 12Z TUESDAY.  A MOIST AIR MASS LOCATED ALONG/S OF THE
FRONT/AHEAD OF ONGOING ACTIVITY AND BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE TUESDAY
SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WITH AT BEST MODEST FLOW ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  THUS...
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH
A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED
HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

SOME INCREASE IN SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BUT
WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT.

...PARTS OF NRN/CENTRAL TX...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...BUT
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..PETERS.. 05/29/2006