[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 230504
SWODY2
SPC AC 230503

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY INTO SERN KS...OK AND NRN AR...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EJECTING NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES
WILL CREST THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION LATE TUESDAY THEN CONTINUE ESEWD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EARLY WEDNESDAY AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
A SURFACE LOW IN ND SEWD INTO WRN IA THEN SWWD AS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH ERN KS AND NWRN OK. THIS FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND TRAIL SWWD THROUGH
OK BY EARLY EVENING. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM THE
SERN U.S. NWWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE
COLD FRONT.


...MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN KS...OK AND NRN AR...

RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW RESIDING NEAR QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS WILL SHIFT
NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AS A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS W
OF RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. A BAND OF STRONGER 700-500 MB WLY FLOW
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVECT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY
ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM
PARTS OF IA AND MO INTO SERN KS AND OK.

A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
REGIME OVER PART OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE SEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. IF STORMS PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD
INTENSIFY AS IT INGESTS INCREASINGLY HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF MO SWWD INTO SERN KS AND OK. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO THE SOMEWHAT
UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND MODEST AMBIENT MID
LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BECOME AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER PARTS OF MO INTO
SERN KS AND OK WHERE A 40 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD SEWD
ABOVE THE WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE OH AND TN VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 05/23/2006