[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 231703
SWODY2
SPC AC 231702

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED AFTN INTO THU MORNING
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN NRN PLAINS
SEWD INTO THE SWRN UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD AS STRONG
VORTEX CURRENTLY NEAR 46N 138W SENDS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES NEWD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
MID/UPPER LOW AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
TRAVEL EWD EXTENDING FROM SERN ND SWD THROUGH ERN NEB THEN SWWD INTO
THE OK PANHANDLE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD.  REMNANTS OF AN MCS
COULD BE OVER IA/NWRN MO TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS ERN IA INTO NERN AND CENTRAL MO TO FOCUS LATER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN OHIO VALLEY...

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE MO VALLEY AND WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD AS DAY1 CONVECTION AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE
MS VALLEY AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. 
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INTO
MO/IL AND PARTS OF IND TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS AT 35-45 KT
FROM CENTRAL OK NEWD INTO NWRN IL...THEN SHIFTS INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY BY EVENING.  50-60 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PROVIDING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN VICINITY
OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY OLD CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAY CONVECTION.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA/WRN IL/NERN MO. 
THUS...WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  GIVEN THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40
KT...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE VICINITY OF
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF MO/IL AND IND OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION
FORMS INTO ANOTHER MCS WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2006