[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 220610
SWODY2
SPC AC 220609

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO SRN CA WILL EJECT NEWD
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY RESULTING IN DE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SD SWD
THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND INTO WRN KS. DRYLINE WILL STRETCH FROM WRN TX
NWD THROUGH N CNTRL KS. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE KS DRYLINE
AS IT CONTINUES EWD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM THE
SERN STATES NWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...ERN NEB TO THE SURFACE
LOW IN SD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM ERN MT INTO ND AS AN IMPULSE
EJECTS NEWD THROUGH MT INTO SWRN CANADA.


...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

CORRIDOR OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS NOW RESIDING IN VICINITY OF FRONT FROM
KS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ADVECT NWD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH. STRENGTHENING 700-500 MB FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE EJECTING
UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVECT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EWD INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG POSSIBLE FROM KS INTO NEB.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL JET ROTATES ENEWD THROUGH BASE
OF UPPER TROUGH RESULTING IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. SOME STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
LINES AND CLUSTERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NEB INTO SD. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD INTO KS WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. STORMS MAY BE MORE
ISOLATED WITH SWD EXTENT WHERE DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL BE WEAKER AND
CAP WILL BE STRONGER. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN KS.

PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE
RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NWD INTO THIS REGION
BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. WHERE SURFACE HEATING OCCURS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE EWD ADVANCING FRONT.
STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE MULTICELLULAR GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER....STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD THROUGH ERN MT AND WRN ND DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 05/22/2006