[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 221733
SWODY2
SPC AC 221732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 22 2006

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CA AT
THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO WY/CO BY START OF THE DAY2
PERIOD.  FROM THERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CLOSE
MID/UPPER LOW OVER ERN SD BY TUESDAY EVENING WHILE HOLDING A SW-NE
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN AND S CENTRAL U.S.

WITH THIS SOLUTION IN MIND...LOOKS LIKE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW.  SEEMS THAT IF MODELS SETTLE ON CLOSED
LOW POSITION OVER ERN SD...THAT A LOW WILL DEVELOP THERE WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING EWD THRU CENTRAL PARTS OF NEB/KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
 EXPECT LINE/CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW/COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN SD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN NEB.

...PARTS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE WITH SBCAPE BETWEEN 2000-3000
J/KG FROM S CENTRAL ND SSEWD THRU THE MO VALLEY INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO
BY LATE AFTERNOON.  MODELS INDICATE 35-45 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET BY
EVENING THRU ERN KS INTO SERN SD ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD/NEAR REGION OF CYCLOGENESIS. APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING WLY TO SWLY 60 KT MID LEVEL FLOW INTO CENTRAL NEB BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH  70-80 KT AT UPPER LEVELS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN AREA OF
STRONG UVVS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

ANALYSIS OF POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AREAS OF SERN SD AND
ERN NEB LOOK BEST FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES NEAR POINT WHERE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND AHEAD OF
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  MANY OF THE FORECAST DATA INDICATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8-8.5C/KM AND MUCAPES AROUND 2200 J/KG. 
THIS DATA ALSO INDICATES 20-30 DEGREE T/TD SPREADS INDICATING ALSO
THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/22/2006