[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 070558
SWODY2
SPC AC 070558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND LWR MO RVR VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN BELT OF THE POLAR VLYS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE N PAC BASIN AND FORCES A
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
TROUGH/STRONGER FLOW WILL PROGRESS TO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY MON
NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERAL
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND DEEP
S.

AT THE SFC...WRN END OF A WEAK FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BEGIN
TO REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE WRN STATES
TROUGH.  LEE-TROUGH IN THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS MON MORNING WILL
EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT BY MON NIGHT FROM THE ERN
DAKS SWD INTO ERN NEB AND CNTRL KS.  THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SEWD
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY AND SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z TUE.


...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD THROUGH
THE PLAINS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
NRN STREAM TROUGH.  BY MON AFTN...50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE COMMON
AS FAR N AS THE ERN DAKS/WRN MN WITH 60S INTO THE LWR MO VLY/CNTRL
PLAINS.  HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LEE-TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG.  AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS SEWD AND THE COLD FRONT
STRENGTHENS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WRN MN SWWD INTO SERN
SD BY MID-AFTN.  ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BACKBUILD SWWD INTO
CNTRL/ERN NEB AND PARTS OF KS DURING THE EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE RATHER WEAK UNTIL EVENING WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 35-40 KT RANGE...SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
 ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BECOME LINEAR QUICKLY AND MOVE TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VLY AND CORN BELT OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING SEVERE RISKS.
 SRN END OF THE LINE MAY DEVELOP INTO A STRONGER MCS AND PROPAGATE
SEWD INTO SRN KS AND NRN OK BY EARLY TUE WITH LOW HAIL
PROBABILITIES.

...SRN PLAINS...
AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS OK AND ERN
TX ALONG THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT SLY LLJ.  THIS MCS WILL PROBABLY
MOVE EWD INTO THE OZARKS AND THE LWR MS VLY DURING THE DAY AND
WEAKEN.  IN WAKE OF THIS MCS...SUBSIDENCE AND LARGE SCALE
RIDGING/WARMING ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG
THE WARM FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX AND SWRN OK DURING MON
AFTN.  BUT...STRONG HEATING AND PERSISTENT/WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
BOUNDARIES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
OF CNTRL/NRN TX EWD INTO SWRN LA LATE MON AFTN.  GIVEN A STORM...50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.

..RACY.. 05/07/2006