[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 071718
SWODY2
SPC AC 071717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ARKLATEX...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CANADIAN AND NRN ROCKIES WILL
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES SEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER JET STREAK DIVING SEWD
TOWARD THE CNTRL ROCKIES.  MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM IMPULSE /INITIALLY
OVER CNTRL KS INTO N-CNTRL TX/ WILL PROGRESS ESEWD TOWARD THE LOWER
MS VALLEY.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLAINS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN INTO SRN
MANITOBA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE RED
RIVER VALLEY OF THE N SWWD INTO SWRN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON.  A LEE
TROUGH OR DRY LINE WILL STRETCH SEWD FROM ITS INTERSECTION WITH COLD
FRONT OVER SWRN NEB SWD THROUGH WRN OR CNTRL KS INTO WRN OK AND
W-CNTRL TX.  FARTHER SE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM
NRN FL WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY
RETREATING NWD THROUGH RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE S.

...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

DESPITE INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 45-55 F. 
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL COMPENSATE TO SOME DEGREE FOR THE MARGINAL
MOISTURE...WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 500-1500 J/KG.  TSTMS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY AFTERNOON INITIALLY ALONG NRN
EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN WITH SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT SWWD INTO CNTRL/ERN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
/25-35 KTS/ OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS
BEING SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG SRN PORTION OF COLD
FRONT AND/OR LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE INTO KS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.  HERE TOO...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH LARGE
HAIL/STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION OWING TO POTENTIAL
EFFECTS OF ONGOING STORMS MONDAY MORNING OVER OK INTO N TX AND
TIMING OF WEAKER SRN STREAM IMPULSE. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
OVER SERN TX/SRN LA/ SHOULD SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
/MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL RETREAT NWD THROUGH THE SRN LOW PLAINS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STORM CLUSTERS OR AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
OVER PORTIONS OF OK AND PERHAPS N TX MONDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
SRN STREAM IMPULSE.  SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH STORM RE-INTENSIFICATION OR NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN
EDGE OF COLD POOL BY AFTERNOON OVER THE ARKLATEX.  THE STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY HAVE SHIFTED E OF THE REGION BY THIS TIME...BUT
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SYNOPTIC FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ANY DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION.

SHOULD STORMS BECOME SUSTAINED...FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH 45-55 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS.  UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENENCE OF
STORMS PRECLUDES HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..MEAD.. 05/07/2006