[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 050559
SWODY2
SPC AC 050558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX
EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

...CNTRL/ERN TX EWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...
COMPLEX UPPER SYSTEM EJECTING SEWD FROM THE GRT BASIN WILL TRAVEL TO
THE SRN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  A LEAD IMPULSE...NOW CROSSING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WILL LIKELY DRIVE AN MCS TO THE ERN TX/UPPER TX
COAST FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER IMPULSE
CURRENTLY OVER NV...WILL ROTATE EWD INTO OK/NRN TX BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXPECTED TO LAY ACROSS THE LWR MS
VLY WWD TO CNTRL TX LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY BE REINFORCED BY THE FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MCS...PARTICULARLY OVER ERN TX AND THE LWR MS
VLY.  TAIL END OF THE FRONT MAY LIFT BACK NWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN
TX SATURDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY IMPULSE.

IT IS UNCLEAR HOW UNSTABLE THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY
WILL BECOME DOWNSTREAM OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...BUT PRESENCE OF 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS
AND 35-40 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN/EVE FROM PARTS OF LA EWD TO SRN AL/WRN FL
PNHDL. 

UPSTREAM...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS LIKELY PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL TX BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
 BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO WARM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THAT
SHOULD MIX EWD INTO THE WRN HILL COUNTRY AND S OF THE N TX
BAROCLINIC ZONE.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ANEMIC
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SECONDARY IMPULSE SWINGS EWD AND DEAMPLIFIES
THROUGH N TX/OK.  THE STRONGER MASS CONVERGENCE/HOTTEST BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS CNTRL TX SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION BY
EARLY-MID AFTN.  THE STORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP MOVE ESEWD INTO
ERN/SERN TX BY EVENING AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS SRN LA BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  PRESENCE OF 40-50 KTS OF H5 FLOW AND STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE LIFE CYCLE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TORNADO. ACTIVITY SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH WINDS/HAIL...
PRIMARILY ALONG SRN FLANKS OF THE MCS.

..RACY.. 05/05/2006