[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 051655
SWODY2
SPC AC 051654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX EWD TO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BEING SRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...POSITION OF PRIMARY SYNOPTIC
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS DURING THE
DAY ONE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...IN GENERAL...THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXTEND
INITIALLY FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL TX ESEWD TO NEAR THE CNTRL
GULF COAST.  MAIN FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO W-CNTRL MS BY SUNDAY MORNING.  AS THIS
OCCURS...LEADING PORTION OF BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NWD...WHILE
TRAILING PART SURGES SEWD AS A COLD FRONT.

...CNTRL/ERN TX EWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING
FROM CNTRL AND ERN TX INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN
REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
INFLUX OF MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER S TX INTO SRN
LA WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THESE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR JUST
TO THE N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

POTENTIALLY MORE INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
ALONG SRN FRINGE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR OR S OF FRONTAL
WAVE OVER CNTRL INTO ERN OR SERN TX.  HERE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES.  THESE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EWD OR
SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN LA SATURDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS AS FAR E
AS SRN MS INTO SWRN AL.

FARTHER TO THE N OVER CNTRL AND NRN MS...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVERNIGHT. 
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE NWD EXTENT OF
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.

..MEAD.. 05/05/2006