[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 091724
SWODY2
SPC AC 091723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
1123 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CONUS IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. A JET MAX OF 130KTS IS FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN
US WHILE ANOTHER JET MAX OF 120KTS IS ENTERING THE WEST COAST NEAR
CENTRAL CA. THE JET MAX OVER THE EASTERN US WILL WEAKEN AND QUICKLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE NE DURING THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE JET MAX OVER
THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE SW US CAUSING LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

...EASTERN US...
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN US WEAKENS AS THE JET MAX RIDES UP
THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND STRONG FORCING AT 850MB WILL CAUSE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. FORCING WILL BE STRONG AS A LLJ OF UP TO 70KTS MOVES OVER NJ.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD IN THIS AREA. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE SE US
WHERE THERE IS A LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US. WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING OVER
THE WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS WI.

...WESTERN US...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE WEST. A COLD POCKET AT 500MB WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW-30C ALONG
WITH WEAK MECHANICAL LIFTING WILL SUPPORT WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS/THUNDERSNOW DURING THE PERIOD.

..AFWA.. 03/09/2006