[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 090659
SWODY2
SPC AC 090658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. 
HOWEVER...A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS -- ONE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD
ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND THE OTHER MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS LATE -- WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

A STRONG COLD FRONT -- CORRELATED WITH THE NERN U.S. SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  FURTHER W...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NEWD ACROSS NEB THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER FEATURE MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES.  THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH
OF THESE AREAS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.

...FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO ERN NC...
THOUGH STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT AND SHARPEST PORTION OF COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ONLY MINIMAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AT BEST.  THOUGH GREATEST INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FURTHER S INTO SC/GA/SRN AL...WEAKER WIND FIELD AND
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA.

BETWEEN THE AREA OF STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
STRONGER UVV OVER NEW ENGLAND...A CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM EXTREME SRN NEW
ENGLAND SWD INTO SRN VA/ERN NC.  THOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED -- PARTICULARLY WITH SWD EXTENT...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS. 
ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY...WITH GENERALLY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED ATTM BEING THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTORS. SHOULD SOMEWHAT GREATER AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR INTO NJ/THE DELMARVA REGION...SLIGHT RISK AREA
MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION NE OF SURFACE LOW/AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY HAIL TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS DESPITE
FAVORABLY-STRONG FLOW ALOFT.

...THE WEST...
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST THIS PERIOD -- ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA -- AS LARGE UPPER
TROUGH RESIDES OVER THIS REGION.  MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A
STRONGER/MARGINALLY-SEVERE CELL MAY AFFECT COASTAL SRN CA LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSES SEWD INTO THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 03/09/2006