[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 080709
SWODY2
SPC AC 080708

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CST WED MAR 08 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID
MS/TN/OH VALLEYS AND EWD INTO THE SERN CONUS...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TX/OK AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT CYCLONICALLY EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE
MS/TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG FLOW -- INCLUDING 60 TO 80 KT SLY/SSWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AND 80 TO 100 KT SSWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS.  

AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD/NEWD...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CONSOLIDATE INVOF THE MID MS VALLEY AND THEN MOVE NEWD AND APPROACH
SRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS.

...MID AND LOWER MS/OH/TN VALLEYS SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS AR AND VICINITY...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  COMBINATION OF
SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTING NWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY
AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /1000 TO 1500
J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

AS UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS SHIFTS EWD...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE/DEVELOP
SWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GULF COAST...LIKELY EVOLVING
INTO A SQUALL LINE BY AFTERNOON.  ATTM...MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN VERY STRONG/COMPACT
UPPER FEATURE AND CORRESPONDING STRENGTH OF FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SSWLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD.  HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH SHEAR VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST/NEWD
ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. 
HOWEVER...THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...AS DECREASING
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY...AND DECREASING
UVV/CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LEADS TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/08/2006