[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 071852
SWODY2
SPC AC 071851

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CST TUE MAR 07 2006

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR TRIPLE POINT POSITION

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WCOAST IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO THE
PLAINS ON WED. SRN PART OF THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WITH A STRONG
IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW WED MORNING AND THEN TURNING EWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY THU.  AT THE SFC...A LEE LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CNTRL KS EARLY WED INTO
NRN MO BY WED AFTN.  A TRIPLE POINT WILL DEVELOP OVER SCNTRL KS
DURING THE AFTN WED WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO CNTRL OK AND SERN
KS BY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL KS SHOULD MOVE SWD INTO
AND ACROSS OK THROUGH EARLY THU.

ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY WED ACROSS THE OZARKS EWD
INTO THE OH VLY...ALONG THE NOSE OF A WSWLY LLJ.  THESE TSTMS WILL
LIKELY SHIFT NWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VLY THROUGH THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES NWD...SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION. 
ISOLD HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OZARKS
DURING THE MORNING.

THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD EXPAND WED AFTN AS MID-UPPER 50S SFC DEW
POINTS ADVECT NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN KS AND MO BENEATH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EML WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS OK/TX AND
SUGGESTS THE CAP MAY HOLD THROUGH MID-AFTN AT LEAST.  CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE FIRST ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT IN SCNTRL KS WHERE
HEATING AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE ERASES CINH.  STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
NEWD FROM SCNTRL KS ALONG THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO WRN MO.  

FARTHER S...ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO CNTRL OK
DURING PEAK HEATING.  BUT...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DARK.  AT
THAT TIME...TSTMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE
AND ALONG/S OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OK...SERN KS AND SRN/WRN MO.  

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL DURING WED AFTN.  A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT IN SERN
KS OR CNTRL/ERN OK AND WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE THE LONGEST. 
THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK WITH TIME DURING THE
EVENING.  THUS...WHILE DISCRETE CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED
AFTN...EVOLUTION INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS
LIKELY WED NIGHT.

..RACY.. 03/07/2006