[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 221724
SWODY2
SPC AC 221723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...TN VALLEY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT SEWD DISPLACEMENT INTO THE TN
VALLEY...STRETCHING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH EWD MOVEMENT OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL FORCE A ZONE OF MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM KY INTO
ME.  LARGE SCALE PROCESSES SUGGEST SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL SAG
SEWD INTO THIS REGION...AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT CONVECTION.  IT APPEARS ONE OR MORE WEAKENING MCS/S
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE MOST LIKELY
REGION WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SRN IL INTO SWRN OH.  ADDITIONAL
WEAKER ACTIVITY MAY BE SCATTERED ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO
UPSTATE NY.  RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...COMBINED WITH ROUGHLY 30-40KT 6KM FLOW ALOFT...WILL RESULT
IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION/EXPANSION OF MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS BY MID DAY FROM KY/TN...NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. 
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

12Z MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES AS SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH TURNS SEWD AND DIGS
TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS
SELY FLOW RESPONDS TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND HEATING IN THE LEE OF
THE MT/WY HIGH TERRAIN.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP BENEATH
THERMAL TROUGH CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE BLACK
HILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SEWD DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT EXPECTED
TOWARD NCNTRL NEB AFTER DARK.  OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SWD INTO PORTIONS OF NERN CO...ALTHOUGH FORCING ACROSS THIS
REGION WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER.  LARGE HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY
SEVERE THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 06/22/2006