[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 230551
SWODY2
SPC AC 230550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY
TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE FEATURES BEING UPPER LOW OVER
ERN CANADA AND UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  WITHIN THIS BROADER
PATTERN...SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES CURRENTLY OVER WRN CANADA ARE
FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE INTENSE...AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP SEWD FROM CNTRL OR SRN MN INTO
SRN WI OR NRN IL BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING
SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN PLAINS. IN THE E...FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING MORE
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS OR ADJACENT
PIEDMONT REGION.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

ERN EXTENSION OF HIGH TERRAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
CO-LOCATED WITH WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO/WRN KS INTO
THE TX/OK PNHDLS.  TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FROM SERN WY SWD TO THE RATON MESA OWING TO INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND PERHAPS SOME DEEPER ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELY/NELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NWLY
AT 20-30 KTS IN THE MID-LEVELS...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.  DIURNAL STORMS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO
ONE OR MORE MCS/S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING
SEWD INTO WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS.

...MN/IA/WI/IL...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD.  THOUGH SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ON
IMMEDIATE BACKSIDE OF ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES...RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD
SUPPORT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG.  WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HIGH WINDS/HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT...IT APPEARS THAT
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MODEST SHEAR /20-30 KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST
6 KM AGL/ WILL PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...

HERE TOO...TSTMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG SURFACE FRONT WITHIN MOIST /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S/ AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...THOUGH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MOIST CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WET MICROBURST EVENTS.

..MEAD.. 06/23/2006