[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 150603
SWODY2
SPC AC 150602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL
SPLIT WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DIGGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE
4-CORNERS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS EVOLUTION ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS VERY WARM AIR AT 700MB HAS YET
TO BE DISPLACED...EITHER THROUGH EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING...OR THROUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  IT APPEARS THICKNESSES
WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
EPISODES ALONG/POST FRONTAL FROM ERN CO INTO NEB.  THIS SHOULD FORCE
SFC FRONT SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD RETURN TO UPSLOPE REGIONS OF ERN CO...TO THE NW OF LEE
CYCLONE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NEB INTO
NWRN KS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...BUT
OTHERWISE SPREAD NEWD ALONG EXISTING CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH LITTLE
WARM SECTOR PROPAGATION.  LATER IN THE DAY STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SERN CO SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE
FOR SFC PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC...ESPECIALLY AS MID LEVELS COOL
BENEATH UPPER TROUGH.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE BENEATH
MODEST MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW ALONG DRY LINE...AND ACROSS UPSLOPE
REGIONS INTO WRN KS/ERN CO.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD
DURING THE EVENING HOURS INTO WRN OK/CNTRL KS AS LLJ SHIFTS INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AFTER DARK.

...NRN MS VALLEY...

00Z NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION FRIDAY...WHILE GFS IS NEUTRAL DURING THE
DAYTIME WITH HEIGHT CHANGES AHEAD OF SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  IDENTIFYING A PARTICULAR TIME FOR HEIGHTENED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS PROVING QUITE DIFFICULT ACROSS THIS REGION AS LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY ENHANCE EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT
ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM SERN SD INTO MN.  WHILE DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AID ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG SFC WIND SHIFT/OUTFLOW
DEMARKATION...FORCING AHEAD OF CANADIAN TROUGH DOES NOT APPEAR
PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THE NRN U.S.  ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
MAY BE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WITH ANY BOW-TYPE ECHOES THAT CAN
EVOLVE AND BECOME ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO MEAN SWLY WIND VECTORS.

..DARROW.. 06/15/2006