[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 151734
SWODY2
SPC AC 151733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY......

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY AS A BELT OF FAST WLY FLOW MOVES
INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES...AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS. THE WRN TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP EAST IN ESSENTIALLY TWO SEGMENTS AS A STRONG DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST...AND SOUTH. A
MORE PROGRESSIVE NRN SEGMENT OF THE TROUGH...WITH STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS...WILL EVOLVE FROM THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS
NRN MT/SRN ALBERTA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTED EWD FROM THE
NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND SCNTRL CANADA AS RELATIVELY
FAST UPSTREAM WLY FLOW AND PACIFIC IMPULSE MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES. THE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SRN SEGMENT OF THE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SWRN U.S...WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. 
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER ELY FLOW
ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WILL BE INFLUENCED AND
EVENTUALLY DIRECTED NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX BY THE APPROACHING
PLAINS TROUGH.

AN EXTENSIVE BELT OF SWLY/SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECEDE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A VERY WARM AND MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GULF
TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...BENEATH A RELATIVELY STRONG CAP.
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WHERE STRONGER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS...LOW LEVEL JET...AND
FRONTAL LIFT CAN ACT TO OVERCOME THE CAP.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FROM SD/NEB SWWD TO ERN CO
AND PERHAPS WRN KS. CLOUDS AND OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EFFECTIVELY REDEFINE THE DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
INFLUENCE OF PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LEE/FRONTAL WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN MASS INFLOW ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY FROM KS TO NEB. STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF
INFLOW AIR MASS...AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...WILL OVERCOME WARM SECTOR INHIBITION TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS KS/NEB
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AS DRYLINE MIXES EAST
ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS/SWRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM WRN NEB INTO ERN CO WILL
SUPPORT/MAINTAIN TSTMS ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE
MORE LIMITED DUE TO EARLY CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER.

MID LEVEL SLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY OVER
THE PLAINS AND RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM
PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION AS MID/UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EAST.
FORCING/ORGANIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE
FRONT/OUTFLOW/DRYLINE AND FRONTAL WAVES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND AND
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRYLINE GIVEN STRONGER CAPPING IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT.

AN MCS OR TWO APPEAR LIKELY TO EVOLVE FROM LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
AND SPREAD ESEWD OVER KS/OK AS DESTABILIZATION/INFLOW IS MAINTAINED
BY BOTH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL JET...AS WELL AS LIFT
ALONG POTENTIALLY EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE COLD POOL.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE NRN SEGMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
PROMOTE FRONTAL ADVANCE FROM THE DAKOTAS EWD TO MN. LIFT WITHIN WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FROM ERN SD ACROSS MN INTO
WI...SHOULD SUPPORT ONE OR TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION
STRENGTHENING AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS TAPPED DURING THE DAY.
POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVES AND PREFERENTIALLY ORIENTED CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS WITHIN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN A NUMBER OF ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND AND
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 06/15/2006