[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 101727
SWODY2
SPC AC 101726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN WY SEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN MO EWD TO THE CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BELT OF 30-40KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED W-E ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WILL SHIFT NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE WRN AND ERN
CONUS. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS ON WY/CO EWD THROUGH NRN OK INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

...SERN MO EWD TO THE CAROLINAS...
A WEAKENING MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MO/IL AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND VEERS. ONCE THIS
COMPLEX WEAKENS OR PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATES...CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ACROSS THIS REGION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY
AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WEAKENS AS 20-25 KT WLY WINDS BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. STRONG HEATING MAY AID STORM
INITIATION NEAR THE FRONT AND/OR FROM REMNANTS OF EARLIER MCS
ACTIVITY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

...ERN WY SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH...LOCATED OVER THE GREATS LAKE AREA...WILL
MAINTAIN DEEP ELY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND ERN SLOPES OF ERN CO/WY. DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 KT
WEAKER THAN TODAY...BUT STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 30 KT MID
LEVEL WLY WINDS RESULT IN STRONGLY VEERING PROFILES...WHICH WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY...LIMITING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE
SHORTLY AFTER THE STORMS FIRST DEVELOP...THE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...FL PENINSULA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #1 IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN THE SERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. KEY WEST VAD WIND PROFILE IS ALREADY
SHOWING SELY WINDS AT 30-35 KT FROM THE SURFACE TO 4 KM AND
DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM...
WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITHIN
THE OUTER BANDS OF THE SYSTEM. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES AND FORECASTS ON THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM.

..IMY.. 06/10/2006