[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 110539
SWODY2
SPC AC 110538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN INTER MOUNTAIN
REGION INTO MT...

...SERN U.S...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN U.S. AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE
DAY2 PERIOD.  GUIDANCE FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES THIS
FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE LANDFALL.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY SHEARED
PROFILES ALONG THE FL PENINSULA AS SYSTEM ACCELERATES TOWARD THE WRN
ATLANTIC...OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUE MORNING.  ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY TO THE EAST OF THE LOW TRACK AS
CIRCULATION BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH.

...NRN INTER MOUNTAIN REGION/NRN ROCKIES...HIGH PLAINS...

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN U.S.
THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS NWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.  LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
PROGRESS LITTLE INLAND...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX WILL SPREAD INTO NV LATE IN THE PERIOD.  A BELT OF
MODERATE MID-HIGH LEVEL MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM SRN
CANADA INTO ERN WA/ORE DURING THE PERIOD PROVIDING VERTICAL SHEAR
NECESSARY FOR SUSTAINING ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  IN THE
ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IT APPEARS STRONG
HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING WILL PROVE BENEFICIAL IN GENERATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. MONDAY. 
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP LATE...BUT LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
OVER ERN ORE/WA ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WHERE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
POSSIBLE.  OTHER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WHERE SIGNIFICANT ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FORCE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE DEEP INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES STRONGLY SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT EVOLVE
ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATELY SHEARED FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.  THIS ACTIVITY WOULD THEN MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE PLAINS
WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ENHANCE INFLOW/FORWARD
PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT.  MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS NWRN/NRN MT LATE IN
THE PERIOD BEFORE SPREADING INTO SWRN SASKATCHEWAN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..DARROW.. 06/11/2006