[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 061736
SWODY2
SPC AC 061734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY IN THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW.  IN THE EAST...A MEAN TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A
WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY APPROACHING WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY...WHILE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LIFTS
NWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER WEST...MODELS SUGGEST SLOW
PROGRESSION OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES AS THE WRN RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD FROM MI INTO OH...WHILE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY SEWD REACHING A WRN OH/WRN TN/CENTRAL TX LINE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A SECOND FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR WWD ACROSS SD INTO A LOW OVER NRN ID AREA...AND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF WA/ORE/ID/WRN MT DURING
THE PERIOD.

...OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD FROM LAKE MI/LOWER MI SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 
SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY EWD/SEWD DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL INHIBIT STRONG
INSOLATION AND DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM FROM ACTIVE AREAS OF
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE NRN PARTS OF
THE RISK AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AS DYNAMIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORTICITY OVERSPREADS THE FRONT
AND REGION OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE LOCATED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER NLY MID LEVEL
WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
AND INDICATE A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.  FARTHER
SOUTH...INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS
THESE REGIONS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING 137W IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOMORROW.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
DAY 1 PERIOD MAY RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ON
WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  PRE-EXISTING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
COUPLED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF ERN ORE/EXTREME
SERN WA INTO NRN/CENTRAL ID AND WRN MT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT IN THE
LOWEST 6 KM WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL..DAMAGING WIND GUSTS..AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO.

...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN PLAINS...
A LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TOMORROW OVER PARTS OF
SD/NRN WY AND MT AS ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED EAST/WEST NRN PLAINS FRONT.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO AID
IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.  CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES
OVER NEB/SD...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT.

...SERN CA/AZ...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF 
THE UPPER RIDGE...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WELL-MIXED LAYER
WILL BE PRESENT.  HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SPREAD NWD/NWWD WITHIN BAND OF
25-30 KT SSELY MID LEVEL WINDS.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL TO OCCUR WITH STRONGEST CELLS.

..WEISS.. 06/06/2006