[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 070611
SWODY2
SPC AC 070610

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 AM CDT WED JUN 07 2006

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TO NRN
HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE U.S.
DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND CONSIST OF A BROAD DEEP LAYERED
ANTICYCLONE SETTLING ACROSS THE SCNTRL CONUS...A RELATIVELY STRONG
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING
GRADUALLY INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ONE OR MORE SUBTLE
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES...ROUNDING THE WRN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION OF
DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ONE PERIOD. THESE FEATURES...COUPLED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...WILL SUBSTANTIALLY ERODE THE NWRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. A BROAD BELT OF MODEST
SWLY TO WLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN GREAT
BASIN TO THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY...AS CENTER OF UPPER HIGH
CONSOLIDATES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE SEWD WITH STRENGTHENING
DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND SOUTHEAST
COASTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...NRN ROCKIES TO NRN HIGH PLAINS...
APPROACH OF PACIFIC TROUGH AND UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SELY/UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS MT/WY ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER SCNTRL CANADA. COUPLED WITH EXTENSIVE ZONE OF DIFFLUENT MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...A NW-SE
ORIENTED BAND OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING BY EARLY THURSDAY FROM NERN MT...ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...TO IA. A WARM AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...FROM ID EWD
ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MT...AND NRN/ERN WY. CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ONE
PERIOD WILL FURTHER ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THESE
AREAS WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING
TO AREAS OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL
INITIATE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS GREATER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS REALIZED. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS/LINES OF STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE EWD/NEWD INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO.

ONE OR TWO SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY PERSIST AND MOVE EAST INTO
HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM ERN WY ACROSS WRN NEB AND
SD DURING THE EVENING. LEE-LOW MAY FURTHER SUPPORT THE UPSCALE
EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS WITH WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG FORCING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
MAY PROMOTE STORM INITIATION ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP...FROM ERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN/IA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR ACROSS THESE
AREAS...A FEW HAIL EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...OH VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST/NRN GULF COAST...
STRONGER FORCING AND SHEAR ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND
ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE GREAT IN THE WAKE OF RECENT COOL OFFSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND GREATER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NEARER THE COAST...COULD PROMOTE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FORCING/CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT...BUT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER SHEAR AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND FROM GA WWD/SWWD ALONG THE NRN
GULF COAST.

...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS...
DEEP HEATING/MIXING AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING ON THE WRN FLANK OF
UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON TSTMS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH
PLAINS. GIVEN POCKETS OF LOCALLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND DRY
SUBCLOUD/INVERTED-V PROFILES...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS.

..CARBIN.. 06/07/2006