[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 121735
SWODY2
SPC AC 121734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SWRN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE
SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE W-E ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN CONUS
WITH BELT OF WLYS N OF UPPER RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH...WHILE A SECOND
FRONT/TROUGH CROSSES THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A SECOND SHORT-WAVE
FEATURE.

...THE PLAINS...
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS
MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
EARLIER FEATURE...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG SURFACE FRONT/LEE
TROUGH BY AFTERNOON.

THOUGH ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST ALONG WRN FRINGE OF
SHORT-WAVE FEATURE...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT STRONGEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.  NONETHELESS...LOW-LEVEL VEERING SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT
SHEAR -- GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY -- FOR MULTICELL AND/OR
WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS.  ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL EVAPORATIVE COOLING GIVEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE/SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS -- WITH SOME SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND/THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ALONG EWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE
NERN CONUS.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THE STRONGER FLOW AND GREATER
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
-- WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER /AOB 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE/. FURTHER S INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WEAKER WSWLY FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE -- MORE PARALLEL TO SURFACE FRONT --
SUGGESTS WEAKER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAKER SHEAR DESPITE
SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  THEREFORE -- THOUGH A LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SRN
NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO SWRN VA...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE BELOW SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLD ATTM.

...OZARKS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ALONG REMNANT BAROCLINIC
ZONE -- WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE TN VALLEY REGION WWD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THIS
REGION...A FEW PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL OR
BRIEFLY-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..GOSS.. 07/12/2006