[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 130608
SWODY2
SPC AC 130607

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY AND EXTENDING NWD
INTO CANADA AT 12Z FRIDAY IS PROGGED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
NNEWD IN ITS WAKE.  THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD BECOME
DETACHED FROM THE PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL BE FARTHER
TO THE NORTH...AND MOVE SLOWLY SEWD OVER THE MID MS VALLEY.  IN THE
NORTHEAST...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SEWD
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN MODERATE NWLY FLOW REGIME DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF DAY 2.  

...MAINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MAINE FRIDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  DESPITE SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH RICH MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S/...WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL
/MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG/.  ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
SRN/ERN MAINE AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SEWD DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN 30-40 KT OF NWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN WI INTO WRN U.P. OF MI...
ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ACROSS THIS REGION ON FRIDAY...
RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF WI INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MI. 
WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS THIS REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  MODERATE NWLY FLOW /30 KT/ SUGGESTS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND/ OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS.  

...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL MT...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST GRAZING NRN MT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO
CENTRAL/NRN MT BY 15/00Z.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER DRY...
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP MID LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  STRONG SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS /50-60 KT/ AND
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP INTO
THE EVENING MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.  ISOLATED HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

..PETERS.. 07/13/2006