[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 040533
SWODY2
SPC AC 040532

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT TUE JUL 04 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND/DE
RIVER VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE TIDEWATER AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFICATION OF ERN CONUS TROUGH IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY TWO
PERIOD AS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
DIGS SEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. IN THE W...SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER NV/UT WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WHILE IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF ERN PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS
NEWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN U.S. TROUGH
WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES...DELMARVA...CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND/DE RIVER VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE TIDEWATER AND
CNTRL APPALACHIANS...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S/ WILL EXIST S OF COLD FRONT.  THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG
OVER THE NRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO 2000-2500 J/KG OVER THE
SERN VA/NC COASTAL PLAIN.  TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OWING TO A WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.  THE GREATEST SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS FROM THE DELMARVA/TIDEWATER REGION
INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT AS SURFACE FRONT ENCOUNTERS STRONGEST
INSTABILITY.

LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT
INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND SOME LARGE HAIL.

...NRN ROCKIES...

FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
GREAT BASIN AND ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM ERN PORTIONS OF WA/ORE THROUGH ID INTO WRN MT/WY. 
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...THOUGH THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG.

THE STRONGEST MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND RESULTING VERTICAL
SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN W OF MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS. 
HOWEVER...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 25-30 KTS OF SHEAR THROUGH THE
LOWEST 6 KM WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 07/04/2006