[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 100602
SWODY2
SPC AC 100601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN CO INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE AND EWD INTO SWRN KS/NWRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGEST BELT OF WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCATED FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO CENTRAL
AND NERN CANADA.  SOUTH OF THIS STRONGER FLOW...A RATHER BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD FROM THE CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION.  COMPACT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER ERN NY/PA AT 12Z TUESDAY AND
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING DAY 2.

...SERN CO INTO TX PANHANDLE EWD TO SWRN KS/NWRN OK...
THE SRN EXTENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ENEWD INTO SWRN KS.  STRONG SURFACE
HEATING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE 60S COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY.  DESPITE WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY AT
20-25 KT...ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS LOCATED BENEATH THE MODEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. 
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...AND ALSO A THREAT FOR HAIL DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

...S CENTRAL KS/N CENTRAL OK NEWD TO MID MS VALLEY/IND...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION ON TUESDAY...AND THUS
RESULTING IN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WLY MID LEVEL
WINDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER SRN IA/NRN MO AT 12Z TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SWWD ACROSS KS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REACHING
THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD STALL ALONG THE
OK/KS BORDER INTO SRN MO.  

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY 2 ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG
AXIS OF SWLY LLJ.  AIR MASS ALONG/S OF ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM SRN
KS/NRN OK INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  LESS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH EWD
EXTENT INTO IL/IND DUE TO WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS LIMITING SURFACE HEATING.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES EAST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL.  A SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION...IF MODELS
AND/OR OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL WINDS/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.

...DELMARVA REGION TO NEW ENGLAND...
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS ERN NY/PA INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL IMPULSE
DE-AMPLIFIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE
DELMARVA REGION NEWD INTO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

..PETERS.. 07/10/2006