[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 020519
SWODY2
SPC AC 020518

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO MID MO VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
FATHER W...AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER WRN CANADA AND THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W...DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL CONCURRENTLY SHIFT EWD
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WITH ATTENDANT UPPER SYSTEM.  MEANWHILE...
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
CNTRL GREAT LAKES...WITH SWWD EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
MID/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...

COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE FOCUSING STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE 60S.  DAYTIME HEATING AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL/SRN MN BY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING SEWD THROUGH THE
WRN GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR.  WITH
TIME...STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...AND
SWWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY.  LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS OR STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OR AN MCS OR TWO IS ANTICIPATED
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING INTO THE NRN
OH VALLEY WWD TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY.

...HUDSON VALLEY SWD INTO ERN NC...

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT OR TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY WHICH MAY FOCUS ISOLATED STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS.  THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN TO
THE N ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY...WHILE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FARTHER S FROM THE TIDEWATER INTO NC COASTAL
PLAIN. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN
NATURE...CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL AND TEND TO
WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING.

...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HIGH WINDS AND SOME HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT FROM SWRN MT INTO ERN WY...ERN CO AND WRN KS.  A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH UNDER-CUTTING WRN CANADA RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS OVER SWRN INTO S-CNTRL MT.  FARTHER
S...EITHER FORCING ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF SYNOPTIC FRONT OR
OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS
FROM ERN WY INTO ERN CO/WRN KS.  RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER
CONDITIONS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..MEAD.. 07/02/2006