[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 030514
SWODY2
SPC AC 030513

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT MON JUL 03 2006

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

OMEGA BLOCK FROM THE ERN PACIFIC TO ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S.
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH THE MAIN REGION OF
HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY
INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.  IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND MORE SEWD
THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.

...CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY...

MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEWPOINTS/ WILL
LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG/ AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
RATHER WEAK.  TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG OR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES WWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY INTENSIFYING AS INFLOW AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES.  ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY BY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY OR CNTRL NEW
ENGLAND WWD ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY.

VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER
SPEED SHEAR /40-50 KTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL/ ACROSS NRN PORTION OF
SLIGHT RISK AREA.  LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES
APPEAR MOST LIKELY WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD BEING
DAMAGING WINDS.  LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END OVER NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING AS
STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE.  FARTHER SW...TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FROM THE DELMARVA WWD INTO THE SRN
OH VALLEY...THOUGH ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

...ERN WY INTO WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD INTO ERN ORE/WRN ID IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MEAN RIDGE DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD AND
THEN SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.  THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
AFTERNOON WITHIN UPSLOPE REGION OVER ERN WY INTO WRN PARTS OF
SD/NEB.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ OWING TO
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES.  STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  THE QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY
PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF A CATEGORICAL RISK ATTM.

...ERN WA/NERN ORE/ID PNHDL...

A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO
500-1000 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR THE TIME
OF PEAK HEATING...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN STORM 
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEPLY-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 07/03/2006