[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 310550
SWODY2
SPC AC 310549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
PSX 40 NNE VCT 15 W CLL 35 NNW UTS 15 SSE IER 40 WSW GZH 20 ESE CEW
50 SW PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE CRP 35 S SAT
40 S BWD 20 WNW SEP 20 SSE GYI 40 NNE TXK 25 SE GWO 20 ESE 0A8 35
SSE CSG 25 NE TLH 65 SE AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TX TO
FL PANHANDLE...

...GULF COAST...

UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE DIGGING A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED.  LATEST DATA INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF
CONCERN WILL REACH ITS LOWEST LATITUDE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST
REGION BEFORE EJECTING NEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD.  GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH/SLOWER THAN NAM MODEL...SUPPORTING RECENT TRENDS OF
UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL/SRN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.

THIS POSITION WILL SLOW THE NWD RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INLAND...ALTHOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORIES WILL HOWEVER FORCE QUALITY DEW POINTS/WARM SECTOR
ONSHORE AHEAD OF SFC LOW.  LOW LATITUDE UPPER FEATURE WILL ENSURE
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE DOES NOT SURGE TOO FAR NORTH WITH AN E-W
POSITION LIKELY TO HOLD WITHIN ROUGHLY 100MI OF THE COAST.  IN THE
ABSENCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX DURING THE DAY1
PERIOD...STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LOWER
60S SFC DEW POINTS RETURN WITH MARITIME WARM SECTOR.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST BY 18Z...SPREADING TOWARD THE
FL PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 01/31/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM