[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 180636
SWODY2
SPC AC 180636

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 40 NNE SEA
25 E OLM 25 WSW PDX 20 S ONP 35 NNW OTH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 44N 128W OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST. 
WEAK...BROAD CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. 
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL RETREAT EWD KEEPING
SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...

ETA/NAM MODEL BRINGS NEXT WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EWD TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISLAND/WRN WA THURSDAY NIGHT.  WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ENHANCE UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND EXIT
REGION OF 70 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 50 KT.  THUS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
ACROSS REGION AFTER 20/00Z JUST AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH/ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...EASTERN TX GULF OF MEXICO COAST AREA...

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN 20/09Z AND 20/12Z.  BOTH THE
ETA-BMJ AND ETA-KF DESTABILIZE AIR MASS MOVING INTO SERN TX WITH
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. ETA-BMJ ENHANCES LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE FLUX INTO THIS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ON INCREASING
40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET.  GIVEN THAT THIS MODEL IS THE OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE SPECTRAL MODELS...WILL CONCLUDE THAT PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO OUTLOOK FOR ELEVATED TYPE THUNDERSTORMS.

..MCCARTHY.. 01/18/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM