[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 051729
SWODY2
SPC AC 051728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST THU JAN 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BLI 10 SSE PDX
25 NNW MFR 45 WSW CEC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED/SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER
THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES.  WITH TIME...ERN TROUGH AND WRN RIDGE WILL BOTH SHIFT
EWD...AHEAD OF DE-AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE W
COAST.

...PAC NW COAST...
VERY LOW THUNDER PROBABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN WA AND
ORE...AND MAY SPREAD SWD TOWARD THE SFO BAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  CURRENT THUNDER AREA COVERS WRN PORTIONS OF WA AND ORE. 
HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF ADDING ADDITIONAL AREA TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WILL INSTEAD LEAVE THE OUTLOOK AREA UNTOUCHED -- SINCE IT
APPEARS ATTM THAT LIGHTNING COVERAGE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 10%.

WITHIN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE NAMKF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL IN TERMS OF DEVELOPING ANY INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION. FROM
AN SREF PERSPECTIVE...ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 50% PROBABILITY FOR 50
J/KG CAPE EXISTS OVER THE REGION...WHILE PROBABILITY OF 250 J/KG
CAPE REMAINS LESS THAN 10% THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH MAIN TROUGH
AXIS -- AND THUS COLDEST AIR ALOFT -- FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WITH LITTLE HEATING EXPECTED DIURNALLY...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SREF SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
IS REASONABLE. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER TO REMAIN
QUITE LOW ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 01/05/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM